AL Central Play-in Game Twins vs Sox

Well the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox are tied at seasons end, and therefore play today at 6:35pm cdt in Chicago to determine the winner of the American League Central Division.  The Sox place their faith in starting pitcher John Danks (11-9, 3.47 era) who is pitching on three days rest.  He did only throw 80 pitches in his last outing against the Cleveland Indians.  Meanwhile, the Twins will send Nick Blackburn (11-10, 4.14) to the hill. 

Let me start by saying that I think Ron Gardenhire is one of the best managers in the game of baseball.  I love what he has done for the Twins.  With that said, I wonder about his decision to pitch Blackburn instead of Francisco Liriano.  I realize that Liriano would be pitching on three days rest and that he got lit up by the Kansas City Royals in his last start as can be seen from his game line, but he only threw 85 pitches:

	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	Season ERA
F. Liriano (L, 6-4)	4.1	11	6	6	1	5	1	3.91

Liriano has the ability to completely dominate any team when he is at his best, and possibly gives the Twins the best chance to win tonight with their season on the line.  That is why I propose this situation.  Start Liriano, but have Blackburn ready to come out of the bullpen.  If Liriano struggles anytime before the 6th inning, pull him immediately and put in Blackburn.  These two pitchers should be able to get the Twins to the 7th inning upon which the rested bullpen can finish out the game. 

By pitching today, Liriano would be able to start Sunday’s home game (game 3) on his normal schedule against the Tampa Bay Rays, assuming the Twins make the playoffs.  Then the Twins could pitch Glen Perkins and Blackburn in game 4 on Monday in the same manner as Liriano and Blackburn tonight.  Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker would start games 1 and 2 respectively.

These are just my thoughts on how the Twins could use their pitchers tonight and in the playoffs.  Gardenhire has done a fantastic job as manager, so who am I to question how he runs his team.

GO TWINS!

American League Central Division Title Now in Twins Favor

The Minnesota Twins have now swept the Chicago White Sox, and are in 1st place by a 1/2 game.  Each team opens a 3-game series at home; the Twins vs the Kansas City Royals and the Sox vs the Cleveland Indians.  The Twins are 11-4 against the Royals with a 4-2 record at home.  The Sox are 10-5 against the Indians with a 6-0 record at home.

The Twins control their own Central Division fate – win their remaining games (including a potential one game play-in at the Sox) and they are in the playoffs for the 5th time in the last 7 years.  Lose and need to see what the Sox do.  If the Twins or Sox are ahead by only a 1/2 game after their games on Sunday, then the Sox will host a make-up game against the Detroit Tigers on Monday.  If there is a tie after this game, then the Twins play at the Sox for a 1-game play-in; winner moves on to play the Tampa Bay Rays in the first round of the playoffs.  If the Twins or Sox are ahead by at least 1-1/2 games after each plays on Sunday, then its the end of the season for the trailing team.

Francisco Liriano (6-3, 3.39 era) pitches tonight for the Twins against Kyle Davies (8-2, 4.21) for the Royals followed by Glen Perkins (12-4, 4.50) vs Gil Meche (13-11, 4.05) on Saturday and Scott Baker (10-4, 3.59) vs Brandon Duckworth (3-2, 5.06) on Sunday.  Since Liriano’s recall from the minors in August, he has gone 6-0 with a 2.05 era, 55 strikeouts, and 18 walks in 10 games. 

John Danks (11-8, 3.20) pitches tonight for the Sox against Scott Lewis (3-0, 1.42) for the Indians followed by Javier Vasquez (12-15, 4.46) vs Zach Johnson (1-3, 5.96) on Saturday and Mark Buehrle (14-12, 3.87) vs Cliff Lee (22-3, 2.54) on Sunday.  The toughest game in this series will be when the Sox have to face Lee who is a lock to win the American League Cy Young.  Plus, Lee pitched a complete game shutout against the Sox on Labor Day.

Anything can happen in baseball, but at least on paper, the Twins have the easier schedule.  Hopefully the Twins win the Central Division this weekend without the Sox having to play the Tigers on Monday.  Thus, giving the Twins players and fans a chance to catch their breath before the playoffs.

Twins Season on the Line

Tonight the Minnesota Twins take on the Chicago White Sox for a three-game series that could determine the winner of the Central Division.  The Twins are 2.5 games behind the Sox and must win one game of this series to at least be mathematically in contention for the Central Division title.  A sweep by the Sox and the Twins are done.  However, if the Twins sweep the Sox, the Twins will be in first place by a half game.

The Twins are 5-1 against the Sox at the Metrodome and have the fourth best home record in the American League (including a better home record than the best team in baseball-the Angels).  Contrast to that, the Sox are 35-43 on the road.  Tonight we get to see how the Twins will respond to the playoff race.  Will they rise to the challenge or fold under the pressure?  I hope the Twins sweep the series and extend the race for the division title. 

After this series the Twins are at home against the KC Royals and the Sox are at home against the Cleveland Indians.  There’s a little twist with this schedule though.  If the Sox do not wrap up the division by the end of this coming weekend, they will play a make-up game against the Detroit Tigers next Monday. 

It was only in 2006 that the Twins took the division title away from the Tigers on the last day of the regular season.  Wouldn’t it be fitting if the Twins were leading by a half game next Monday and the Tigers beat the Sox?  Thus giving the Twins the division title.  This scenario can come true but it will require the Twins rising to the challenge.  They need to use that home field advantage and play their best baseball of the season to make their 5th playoff appearance in the last 7 years.  If nothing else, it has been an exciting playoff race.

AL MVP

In my quest to show that the Twins have the MVP of the American League in Justin Morneau, I proved myself wrong.  Apparently I am not savvy enough with this website to put up a pdf of the stats that I used for the analysis.  Therefore, I can only provide the link.  The stats I used for this analyis are through Sunday, September 21, 2008 and can be found at Yahoo! Sports.  These stats update daily so they may be different from what you see, but it is the best that I can do right now.  http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/stats/bycategory?cat=Batting&conference=AL&sort=22   These stats are for the players I think are the leading contenders:  Dustin Pedroia (BOS), Aubrey Huff (BAL), Justin Morneau (MIN), Kevin Youkilis (BOS), Alex Rodriguez (NYY), and Josh Hamilton (TEX).

For my analysis I used the following 7 statistical categories:  runs (R), hits (H), home runs (HR), runs batted in (RBI), batting average (AVG), on base percentage (OBP), and slugging percentage (SLG).  If you add up every hitter’s ranking in the American League and divide it by 7 (number of categories used), the results are:  Pedroia=15.14, Huff=9.43, Morneau=9.43, Youkilis=12.14, Rodriguez=9.57, and Hamilton=9.57.  However, if you remove the Hits (H) category since this is completely encompassed by the Batting Average (AVG) category, then Pedroia=17.5, Huff=9.67, Morneau=10.5, Youkilis=10.17, Rodriguez=5.83, and Hamilton=10.5.  Another reason for removing Hits (H) from the analysis is to not penalize players who have played in less games and therefore have less at-bats. 

Based on my analysis, I would give the AL MVP to Rodriguez again.  It is worth noting that things can drastically change over the remaining games as evidenced by the fact that Morneau=9.33 through 9-18-08.  He didn’t have such a good weekend against Tampa Bay.  I wish I could find two more stats for each player:  Batting Average with Runners in Scoring Position and Batting Average with Two Outs.  I think these would help Morneau’s case, but then again, I thought this analysis would have proved he was the AL MVP.  Alex Rodriguez is just too good.

Vikings vs Packers

One theme to this year’s Vikings team (Vikes 2008) is going to be money.  They sure spent a lot of it this past offseason, but apparently it wasn’t enough as evidenced by Monday nights game.  I applauded the offseason moves as the team made a strong effort to improve last years team.

Last years team was horrendous against the pass mostly because of the virtually non-existent pass rush.  Hence the reason Vikes 2008 took Jared Allen (6Y72M-31M guaranteed) and his league leading sack total away from Kansas City via a trade.  They also signed free agent Madieu Williams (6Y33M-13M guaranteed), a CB from the Cincy Bengals.  Allen had his self-attested worst career game (0 tackles, sacks, fumble recoveries, etc.) and Williams didn’t even play due to a neck injury.  Therefore, the Vikes 2008 got nothing from their investments during the first loss of the season.

The offense was not much better, largely due to the play of QB Tarvaris Jackson.  It doesn’t matter if the team signed the best free agent WR not named Randy Moss during the offseason in Bernard Berrian (6Y42M-16M guaranteed).  If Jackson can’t throw him the ball, it does no good to have a WR who can stretch the field. 

I realize this was one game, but it was against a very beatable team, not to mention it was the biggest rivalry the Vikes 2008 have had over the last 15-20 years.  The next opponent on the schedule is the Colts.  How they lost to the Bears, I have no idea.  Maybe Kyle Orton is the right fit for the Bears.  Maybe not.

I would like to end with two positive notes.  First, the Vikes 2008 signed FB Thomas Tapeh to replace pro bowl FB Tony Richardson and he did a nice job blocking for one of the best RBs in the league, Adrian Peterson (19rushes103yards1touchdown).  Second, Jackson is good at running the ball (9rushes65yards).

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